1. Can Justin Morneau win the American League Triple Crown?
- Argument for Justin Morneau winning the American League Triple Crown: Justin Mourneau has been awesome this season. He is hitting .347 which is good enough for 5th best in the American League. Miguel Cabrera is leading at .377 which is not that big of a difference because I guarantee you Miguel Cabrera is not going to hit .377 so if Morneau can hit .330 he will have a good shot to win the batting title. The biggest competition is if teammate Joe Mauer can get enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. The next stat is homeruns where Morneau has 14 homeruns right now which makes him tied for second with Mark Teixeira 2 homeruns behind leader Carlos Pena. Pena is not going to keep this going and Teixeira is not a 40 homerun hitter so if Justin can hit 35-38 he has a real shot at winning the homerun title. The easiest one for him to win is the rbi title. Right now Morneau has 44 rbi's which ranks him 3rd 3 behind Jason Bay and 5 behind leader Evan Longoria. I think that is the most realistic title for him because through the years Justin Morneau has been a rbi machine and this pace is nothing new for him. The biggest reason he has a shot at the triple crown is Denard Span and Joe Mauer. They always get on and as long as that continues there will be rbi opprotunities, also will see better pitches with men on base which will help his average and homerun totals. I know its early but he has a real chance at this.
- Argument for Justin Morneau not winning the Triple Crown: Honestly, the odds are pretty deep against him winning the triple crown. He is not leading any of the categories and it is very very early. Another thing Morneau's career high in batting average for a season is .321 and that is far from a sure thing to win a batting title with a .321 average. Another thing Morneau's swing has changed through the years he goes the other way a lot more than he used to. He also plays in a pitcher's park. It is nothing like Petco Park but it is not as good as Fenway or Yankee Stadium where balls just jump out of. The Metrodome plays more for the pitcher than the hitter. Finally, He is a gap hitter who hits alot of doubles so it would be hard for him to hit the 40+ homeruns it would take to win the homerun title. Overall, there is not much chance he can win the triple crown.
- My take: Honestly, Justin Morneau realistically probably does not have a very good chance to win the triple crown. However, He is probably the best 1st baseman in the league and he keeps getting better as a hitter. Every time he comes up there is a chance he is going to go yard. I believe he will probably win his 2nd rbi title in 4 years, but I don't think he is gong to quite win the batting title or the homerun title. I look for him to hit between 30-35 homeruns and bat about .325 which won't be quite good enough to win those titles. The thing about Morneau is that would be an unbelievable season being that noone has hit for the triple crown since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967 which is 42 years ago which shows how tough it is to do. It should be an interesting summer to see if Mourneau can keep it up and challenge the immortals of the game.
11 comments:
Another great topic. It's obviously not real realistic that anyone win the Triple Crown. However, I think it is pretty cool that it is a legitimate, fair question to just throw out there. Based on what he's done so far, it's probably also fair to ask the same question about Mauer, as long as people get on in front of him and those homers barely over the LF fence don't become doubles off the wall as the season wears on.
that is a valid point about Mauer also having a chance at the triple crown. Also about the homeruns turning into doubles later in the year. Who has a better shot to win the Triple crown Mauer or Morneau
Mauer is the main reason Morneau won't win the Triple Crown. If Joe stays healthy he will win the batting title rather easily. If Joe isn't healthy Justin won't have enough runners to drive in.
but the question really is even healthy will Mauer get enough at bats to qualify for the batting title and if he cant qualify that helps Morneau's case
Yankee stadium is the reason that Morneau will not do it.
that is a very valid point but that should not be the case. I am not saying that every stadium should be the same size but there is definatly a competitve disadvantage for pitchers going into yankee stadium. There should be something done there because if you hit a routine fly ball there the wind takes it out of the park and thatis not fair
Just a question....
How many PAs will Mauer have to have in order to qualify for the batting title?
Also, to go along with that; would many people who aren't currently Twins fans consider Mauer hitting .400 to be tainted considering he was out for a month?
I believe it is 504 at the end of the year. Also that is a good question for debate would Joe Mauer hitting .400 be lesser since he missed April. In my opinion hitting .400 in 1 month is hard but doing it for 5 months is almost impossible and if he could do that I think would be awesome and beyond debate, but thats just me I would love to hear some other opinions on this
It is 3.1 plate appearances per game, so 502.2 or 503.
Why would anyone consider it tainted? He would have met the criteria, so I have no idea why anyone would think that.
I agree Seth, but that doesn't mean other people out there are as logical as you. I'm making the point that some people are ridiculous and would say that he didn't play the whole season, therefor it's not valid.
they also said that Justin Morneau did not deserve the MVP in 2006 and we all know that is ridiculus. There will be an east coast bias but any sane person knows how hard it is to hit .400 and everyone should congratulate him if he can do that
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