With the Mauer negotiations starting to take shape it makes you wonder how much the Twins really have to spend. With the talks of possibly signing Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson it makes you wonder if the Twins have the flexibility to sign those guys to a multiyear contract. I am basing it on the most logical figures that Joe Mauer will sign a 7 year deal worth 150 million which is 21.4 million per. I am also basing it on a 95 million dollar payroll and a 100 million dollar payroll in 2011. But really I have no idea what the Twins payroll is going to be that just seems logical so I am going to base my figures on those totals. I am going to break down on those figures how much cash they have left. Here is the 2011 salaries with some arbitration estimates so we can see if there is room left over for Lopez and Hudson to get theirs.
Joe Mauer: 21 million
Justin Morneau: 14 million
Joe Nathan: 11.25 million
Michael Cuddyer: 10.5 million
J.J. Hardy: 8 million arbitration estimate
Jason Kubel: 5.25 million
Scott Baker: 5 million
Delmon Young 4 million arbitration estimate
Clay Condrey: 900,000 arbitration estimate
Brendan Harris: 2.0 million arbitration estimate
Nick Blackburn: 1.5 million arbitration estimate
Pat Neshek 1.5 million arbitration estimate
Kevin Slowey: 1.5 million arbitration estimate
Denard Span: 750,000 arbitration estimate
Francisco Liriano 2.0 million arbitration estimate
Alexi Casilla: 750,000 arbitration estimate
Jose Mijares: 750,000 arbitration estimate
Jose Morales: 450,000 arbitration estimate
Total: 91 million
That leaves Nick Punto, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and Carl Pavano as free agents. With the 100 million dollar payroll that leaves 9 million dollars to sign your own free agents along with guys to finish your 25 man roster. If the payroll is around 100 million there is no way in my mind that they can pay any 2nd baseman or 3rd baseman 4-5 million in 2011. Like it or not Twins fans the starting 3rd baseman in 2011 for the Twins will be Danny Valencia. The starting 2nd baseman will be from a group of Steve Singleton, Steve Tolleson, Brian Dinkelman, Trevor Plouffe, or Nick Punto if he is willing to take a discount to return at 2nd base. If their payroll is 105-110 then that is a different story, but everything the Twins have said about not wanting to offer more than a one year contract makes it likely they will be looking around 100 million. I welcome your thoughts on this issue if you disagree on this or agree on it let me know. Also of those 5 free agents which ones would you like to see the Twins resign and which would you like to see the Twins let go. You can either leave your comments in the comment box or send me an email at travis_aune@yahoo.com.
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3 comments:
You could replace all the free agents for a little over $2M: Tolbert for Punto, 3 of Slama, Delaney, Burnett, Province, Lugo or Gutierrez for the bullpen, and Duensing, Swarzak or Manship for Pavano. Non-tender Harris and Casilla and replace them with 2 of Tolleson, Dinkelman, Singleton or Plouffe and you've made most of that $2M back. You're still at about $91M with only 2 spots to fill. Valencia probably will get the 3B job for the league minimum, leaving plenty of room to sign a decent 2B, plus bring back your favorite bullpen guy.
i agree with you, but knowing the Twins that is a pretty young bullpen. Also they may turn Punto back into a utility guy but trust me he will be on the team. I swear he has some incriminating photos of gardy stashed away. The bottom line if the Twins want to add a 2nd baseman that makes some money they need to do the unthinkable and trade Joe Nathan. That is the only way we can get a Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez on more than a 1 year deal.
Just a couple of thoughts. I see the Twins keeping Punto on a 2 year deal after this one is up at 2 - 3 million per season, I can see the Twins reigning one of those 3 relievers Guerrier, Rauch, or Crain for 2011. Casilla wont be here and neither will Harris unless he gets nontendered and signs for around 1 million and only if Valencia hasn't established himself up here by then. Span will make closer to 2 million in arbitration if he has a similar year to last year and Mijares will be in his last year of serfdom making below 500k.
Either way this still soesn't leave a whole lot of payroll flexibility moving forward. Hopefully the Twins will be willing to go to 105-110 million to finish off the payroll.
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